Although the Restaurant Performance Index dipped somewhat in April, it remained solidly in positive territory. Restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales for the 11th consecutive month, and a majority of them expect business to continue to improve in the months ahead.
?The Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators? six-month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions), stood at 102.2 in April ? down slightly from a 15-month high of 102.4 registered in March (see red line in chart). April also represented the eighth consecutive month that the Expectations Index stood above 100, which signifies a positive outlook among restaurant operators for business conditions in the coming months.?
MP: Further evidence of an improving outlook for U.S. restaurants is provided by Census data showing that sales for ?Food Services and Drinking Places? were up by 8.5% in April from a year earlier, following a 7.4% increase in March.? After being flat in 2008 and 2009, sales at ?food services and drinking places? are now 17% above the June 2009 level when the recession officially ended, and set a new record high of almost $44 billion in April (not adjusted for inflation). ?
Moreover, the retail sales at ?Full Service Restaurants? were up by 13.1% year-over-year in March following a 13.7% increase in February. The relevant data suggest that the restaurant industry has made a full recovery from the recession and is now operating back above pre-recession levels. Regardless of how consumers answer confidence survey questions, the strong improvements in restaurant sales and the RPI in recent months would indicate that tracking actual consumers spending on restaurant meals is reflecting a high level of consumer confidence.?
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